Mutiny at Georgian Base Averted

In what officials have called a small mutiny with links to Russia, the Georgian military averted what would have been an embarrassing crisis just a day ahead of joint Georgian-NATO exercises. Exactly what was the link to Russia remains to be seen, but it would not be surprising to discover that Russia planned a little bit of cross-voennaya dezinformatsiya (military disinformation), a mode of operational maskirovka.

While usually consisting of false information about one's OWN troops, it is now possible that Russia is trying to seed deliberate disinformation among its neighbor's troops for the purpose of deceiving them and NATO allies in a vain attempt to discredit the exercises only miles away from Tbilisi.

Georgian Song Mocking Putin to Compete in Eurovision Contest in Moscow

Georgia's official entry for the 2009 Eurovision song contest is making more headlines than it anticipated. The country selected We Don't Wanna Put In by Stefan & 3G out of ten entries from a combination of televoting and an expert jury. Due to compete in Moscow between 12 and 16 May 2009 at the Olympic Indoor Arena, the song has upset some in Russia, notably Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, himself.

Some have called the disco-funk song a play on words of Putin's name. Dmitry Peskov, spokesman of the PM, commented that "...if it is really so, we should only regret that the contestants from Georgia[,] instead of concentrating on the art, use such a popular contest in Europe for demonstrating their pseudo-political ambitions, or - simply speaking - their hooliganism." This slur is likely to follow the group when they enter the Russian capital.

While some claim that it could fall foul of Eurovision's rule against political content in entries, a spokeswoman for Georgian Public Broadcasting (GPB), who are organising the country's Eurovision bid, told Reuters: "This song is not about politics, it has nothing to do with politics and politicians." Lyrically, the song's political references are minimal, if not nonexistent. Some target words might include "the negative move/It's killing the groove," but nothing more to indicate that it is directed at Russia.

The song's acclamation came about after the August 2008 Russian-Georgian War, in which Russia successfully invaded parts of Georgia, eventually recognizing the sovereignty of the two de-facto Georgian territories, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Although members of Stefane & 3G initially did not conceal their entry's political context, on February 20, Kristine Imedadze, one of the singers in the band. While Stefane Mgebrishvili, another member, publicly acknowledged the title reference to the Russian PM, the group is now eschewing any abhorrent assertions.

This move, however it is derived, is largely astute on the group's part. Reception to Georgian nationals ever since the 2004 Rose Revolution has been inimical, but now more than ever in light of the recent war. The largely Russian audience to attend Eurovision this May is not likely to be jumping up and getting into the groove when the song is played. If anything, the safety of the group members might be of more concern, especially now, considering Putin's disapproval of such hooliganism. Despite their best efforts at mitigating the political examination for their song, Stefan & 3G will no doubt be attracting more attention in the time up to the contest.

Eurovision is the annual competition held by member-countries of the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). Joined by Stefane Mgebrishvili, the trio 3G consists of Nini Badurashvili, Tako Gachechiladze and Kristine Imedadze.

Russia to Build a Berlin Wall in Georgia?

Several reports have shown up on Georgian news sites concerning the possibility of Russia constructing walls around Abkhazia and South Ossetia. InterPressNews and The Georgian Times both speculated that the building of the walls would aim to prevent the local populations and stationed Russian soldiers from fleeing to Georgian territory. Three days later, Mikheil Saakashvili stated at Parliament that Russia was planning to build a wall in Abkhazia.

The reports coincide with the recent case of Junior Sgt. Aleksandr Glukhov, who fled the Russian-occupied Tskhinvali region and sought asylum in Georgia. While predominantly Russian news agencies maintain that the 21- year-old Russian conscript was subjected to psychological pressure or threats, the international case has largely fallen quiet.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has stated that it is unaware of any plans for the construction of a fence on South Ossetia’s border with Georgia. However, the ministry also said that the government of South Ossetia would have the right to erect an infrastructure on its border with adjacent states for national security reasons. Russian statements on the creation of a wall on the Abkhazian border with Georgia remain nonexistent for the time being.

The assertions on the Russian side evoke the same made by East German officials in 1961. That year, GDR Chairman Walter Ulbricht categorically stated in an international press conference that “No one has the intention of erecting a wall!” Two months later, a wall was constructed separating East Germany from West Germany for more than a quarter-century. November 9th of this year marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Lamentable though it may be, but it appears that its anniversary might signal the beginning of a new Wall in Georgia for years to come.

Why Nurture Russia's Illusions?

One of the best articles I've read on the current analysis of US-Russian relations and Russia's status quo: their intentions, objectives, and prospects. Perfect for anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Eurasian affairs.

By MATTHEW KAMINSKI - WSJ

Barack Obama wants to make friends with Russia, "press the reset button" as his Veep proposed the other day.

Sounds familiar. Bill Clinton bear hugged Boris Yeltsin and George W. Bush peered into successor Vladimir Putin's soul. Yet relations haven't been this bad since Konstantin Chernenko's days at the Kremlin.

So what? America is on a roll in Eurasia. Democracy, open markets and stability spread across the region in the Clinton and Bush eras. From Estonia to Georgia to Macedonia, free people want to join the West.

At every step of the way, Russia sought to undermine this great post-Cold War project. Grant that the Kremlin acts in defense of its perceived interests but so should the U.S., and continue down this same path.

Here Foggy Bottom's finest chime in: Yes, but imagine a world with a friendly Russia, able to help us, say, stop Iran's atomic bomb program. So let's not push so hard to deploy anti-Iran missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic that Russia hates -- use, if necessary, the excuse that costs and feasibility require further study. Back off on closer NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia. Make Russia feel important and consulted. Joe Biden sketched out this sort of bargain at last weekend's Munich security conference.

The conceit is we can win the Kremlin over by modifying our behavior. Before Mr. Obama tries, he should be aware of recent history. On missile defense, American diplomats spent as much time negotiating with Russia as with the Central Europeans, offering Moscow the chance to join in. Nothing came of it. On Kosovo independence and Iran sanctions, Russia blocked the West at the U.N.

Last spring, NATO snubbed Georgia and Ukraine in a signal of good will to Mr. Putin. The day after, Mr. Putin privately told Mr. Bush that Ukraine wasn't "a real country" and belonged in the Russian fold. Five months later, Russia invaded Georgia and de facto annexed its breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Mr. Obama may be tempted to think Russia can be won over. After all, they would seem to need America (short for the West) far more than America needs Russia. We're not the enemy. Russia's real strategic challenges are in the East: China looks ravenously at the vast, mineral-rich, lightly populated Siberian steppe cut off from Moscow (to this day, you can't drive across Russia). And to the South: The arc of Islamic extremism, starting with a possibly nuclear Iran, a competitor for Caspian energy and influence.

And as Mr. Putin discovers each day his economy sinks further, Russia failed to take advantage of sky-high oil prices to diversify away from energy. It sells nothing of value to the world aside from gas, oil and second-rate weapons. Its infrastructure is decaying and its population in decline.

A Kremlin leader with a long-term view would see these grave threats to Russia's future and rush to build a close partnership with the West. But the interests of Mr. Putin and his small, thuggish, authoritarian clique don't necessarily coincide with that of Russia.

The Obama magic dust doesn't seem to work on a regime defined and legitimized by its deep dislike for America. Dmitry Medvedev, the Putin underling in the president's office, moved the state of the nation address to the day after the American election to spin the outcome for the domestic audience. The U.S., he said into the winds of pro-American sentiment sweeping across the world in the wake of the Obama win, was "selfish . . . mistaken, egotistical and sometime simply dangerous."

The Kremlin then welcomed Mr. Obama into the White House with the administration's first serious foreign policy headache. Taking $2 billion from its fast-depleting reserves, Russia bullied and bribed Kyrgyzstan to close a U.S. military airfield, the main transport hub for supplies going into Afghanistan. Russia's desire for a "sphere of influence" trumps the threat of resurgent extreme Islamism in its southern underbelly.

The thinking here is Cold War porridge. But the Russians were never offered a new narrative. Mikhail Gorbachev's idea of a "European family" and Yeltsin's reforms foundered. Mr. Putin went back to a familiar recipe: Russia, empire-builder and scourge of the West.

A Cold War mentality lingers in America, too. A foreign policy caste rich in Sovietologists by habit overstates Russia's importance. The embassy in Moscow is huge; bilateral meetings inevitably become "summits," like in the old days.

Mr. Obama's fresh start is a good time for a reality check. The U.S. can work with Russia, seen in its proper place. To even suggest that the Russians have a special say over the fate of a Ukraine or our alliance with the Czechs lets Mr. Putin nurture the illusion of supposed greatness, and helps him hang on to power.

Ultimately it's up to the Russians to decide to be friends. One day, someone in the Kremlin will have to confront a hard choice: Does an isolated and dysfunctional Russia want to modernize and join up with the West, look toward China, or continue its slow decline? Until then, Mr. Obama better stock up on aspirin and dampen his and our expectations about Russia.

Georgia wants Abkhazia to be 'weapons-free' zone - minister

10/02/2009 15:11 TBILISI, February 10 (RIA Novosti) - Georgia is to demand that Abkhazia be declared an armaments-free zone, a Georgian minister said on Tuesday.

Russia and Abkhazia have agreed to open one military base in Gudauta, in the west of Abkhazia, and to establish a Russian Black Sea Fleet base in the coastal town of Ochamchira. No official documents have been signed, however.

"As for the deployment of Russian military bases in Abkhazia, Georgia will demand that Abkhazia be proclaimed a weapons-free zone, and that international police forces be deployed there," Temur Iakobashvili, the Georgian state minister on issues of reintegration, said.

Russia recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states last year on August 26, two weeks after the end of a five-day military operation to "force Georgia to peace" which began when Georgian forces launched an attack on South Ossetia to try and regain control of the region.

Abkhazia and South Ossetia split from Georgia in the early 1990s, and most residents of both republics have had Russian citizenship for a number of years.

The chief of the Russian General Staff, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, said in November that the Russian military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia would be fully staffed with 3,700 personnel each by the end of 2009.

Georgian PM Mgaloblishvili Resigns; Saakashvili Nominates Nika Gilauri

Grigol Mgaloblishvili has resigned his post as prime minister citing deterioration of his health condition. At a special press conference, he said that he must continue intensive treatment for two more months. Mgaloblishvili had been in Germany for most of January undergoing medical examination for kidney problems.

The former prime minister said that "Today, Georgia can not afford itself a prime minister, who can not be in usual working mode for three months. The country needs the cabinet and the Prime Minister capable of working round-the-clock." Mgaloblishvili reiterated his desire to serve the country on any position after his treatment. "In any capacity, I will stay in [the] Georgian state and people's service. We will do everything, with the president and our friends, to accomplish the plans we have aimed together," he said. Mgaloblishvili was Mikheil Saakashvili's fourth PM in his five-year term.

Saakashvili has followed Mgaloblishvili's nomination of deputy premier and finance minister Nika Gilauri as new prime minister. The Georgian president said that there would be no more changes to the cabinet, which will face a confidence vote in Georgian Parliament.

Unlike Mgaloblishvili, who had little political experience except his post as Ambassador to Turkey, Gilauri is the longest-standing government member, serving as both an energy and later a finance minister since February 2004. Saakashvili has expressed his confidence in the prime minister-designate, relaying that he will first have to tackle the country's medical insurance system.

Cyber Assault Cripples Web in Kyrgyzstan

It's almost like I'm watching Groundhog Day with Bill Murray, only it's actually Russia repeating their cyber attacks on post-Soviet countries. Read this piece from DefenseNews by William Matthews.

Kyrgyzstan, a former member of the Soviet Union, is the latest victim of a cyber assault that appears to originate in Russia.

Distributed denial-of-service attacks that began Jan. 18 have crippled Internet service in the mountainous Central Asian nation of 5.2 million on China's western border.

The attacks have been traced to Russian Internet addresses, according to Internet monitoring organizations and network security firm SecureWorks, based in Atlanta.

Denial-of-service attacks use a multitude of computers to contact Web sites simultaneously, overwhelming them and blocking legitimate traffic. The attacks have shut down most Internet service in Kyrgyzstan, according to the Information Warfare Monitor, a joint project of Cambridge University and the University of Toronto.

"The motivation appears to be political," the Information Warfare Monitor's Web page said.

The attacks may be intended to silence opponents of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev who are active on the Internet. They may also be intended to pressure Kyrgyzstan to close an air base that is used by the United States for the war in Afghanistan, an arrangement Russia opposes.

The attacks on Kyrgyzstan are similar to attacks launched from Russia against Web sites in Georgia, before Russian troops invaded last August to drive Georgian troops out of two breakaway provinces sympathetic to Russia.

Those attacks shut down Web sites of the Georgia Ministry of Defense and other government agencies and defaced sites of Georgia's national bank and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. News sites also were attacked.

Although the cyber attacks did little real damage, the fact that they were coordinated with military operations appeared ominous.

In 2007, more extensive cyber attacks on Estonia disrupted banking and shut down Web sites of the Estonian parliament, government ministries, banks, newspapers, broadcasters and others.

Those attacks, too, were traced to Russia and came amid a violent Russian reaction to an Estonian decision to move a memorial to Soviet soldiers out of the central square in Estonia's capital, Tallinn.

With a third denial-of-service attack traced to Russia, "my guess is that the Russians, having gotten away with it twice, and generally enjoying it, have made it part of their operations," said James Lewis, director of the Technology and Public Policy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"It's also possible," he said, "that others are copying them or even hiring Russian hackers" to carry out the attacks. "If there is no risk and no penalty, countries will do it."

So far, the attacks have not been traced directly to the Russian government.

But Martin Libicki, a military and cyber expert at Rand Corp., cautioned against concluding that the cyber attacks are serious enough to be "a harbinger of 21st-century warfare."

Rather, "they are, perhaps, something to be concerned about," he said.

Saakashvili Holds His Own Call-In Show

Irrespective of the views of the opposition to Mikheil Saakashvili, president of Georgia, this Moscow Times article proves to be very perceptive. Saakashvili held his first marathon call-in for citizens of Georgia to ask the leader questions concerning a variety of issues. While this may seem like an effective and creative way to reach out to the people, it borders on pure imitation of his former counterpart and current prime minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin.

Putin's presidency was marked by the banal use of annual phone-in events with the public on Russian television. Addressed reverently as "Vladimir Vladimirovich," citizens continue to ask very insightful questions to the current prime minister. Such excerpts include Putin's thoughts on Christmas trees, the whereabouts of his former pet tiger, and the best method for hanging Saakashvili's genitals.

Why, then, is Saakashvili mimicking Putin's media ruse? The opposition to the Georgian leader rightly criticize him for this stunt. Saakashvili should know better than to repeat the actions of his contiguous arch-rival, especially one with a KGB-idolizing monopolistic government under his control.

26 January 2009 TBILISI, Georgia -- Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili rejected opposition calls to resign during a marathon call-in show Friday that took a page from the political playbook of the man he has mocked as his enemy -- Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

The four-hour televised show was broadcast on all three Georgian TV channels and featured Saakashvili sitting at a semicircular table with a handpicked audience seated behind him. Images of Georgian flags and photographs of monuments appeared on a backdrop.

A mixture of prerecorded and live studio questions were dominated by social issues, concerns about the economy and the plight of Georgian villagers displaced by fighting between Russia and Georgia in August.

But there was little scrutiny of Saakashvili's decision to launch an assault on breakaway South Ossetia on Aug 7. Russia's devastating counterstrike drove the Georgian army from the region.

"It was a great personal tragedy for me," Saakashvili said. "I received the strongest blow in August, and they were the most difficult moments of my life.

"This evil force invaded my country and killed my children," he said, adding, "I am a refugee together with you, and I am a father of killed children along with you."

Saakashvili also lashed out at Russia, accusing it of destabilizing Georgia during the August war and calling Putin "an uncompromising enemy of Georgia."

Dozens of opponents demonstrated outside the television studio and accused the president of mimicking Putin, who has held an annual phone-in with the public on Russian television for several years. "What does Saakashvili have left to learn from Putin?" opposition Republican Party senior official David Usupashvili said. "He should stop ruling the country with PR stunts and allow free and fair election."

The 41-year-old president said he had no intention of wasting time and money on early elections. He said he was "in great shape," exercised everyday and started work at 11 a.m.

"I'm not planning to die nor to step down," Saakashvili said, looking tanned and generally relaxed.

"My main task right now is to save the country from economic crisis and to unify it," he said.

Historic US-Georgian Partnership Charter Signed

Earlier today at the US Department of State, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze signed the first Charter on Strategic Partnership between their two countries.

The document affirms the importance of the relationship between the US and Georgia, emphasizing that this cooperation between the two democracies is based on shared values and common interests, and stresses the mutual desire to strengthen the relationship across the economic, energy, diplomatic, scientific, cultural and security fields.

A Georgian official called the charter an important "stepping stone" for the Caucasus nation into NATO and the "family of Western and civilized nations."

The non-binding document is yet another reminder of the strong commitment between the two countries. This past September, US President Bush pledged $1 billion in aid to Georgia in light of Russia's violation of Georgia's territorial sovereignty.

The full text of the charter may be found at Civil Georgia.

The full video of the signing of the charter can be found below courtesy of The Department of State.

Russia May Buy Israeli-Made Spy Drones

A follow-up article by Michael Schwirtz (12/16/2008) of The New York Times to an analysis posted in August on Israeli-made UAVs, but this time concerning Russian acquisition.

MOSCOW - Russia is considering buying an unspecified number of remotely piloted reconnaissance aircraft from Israel, the head of the Russian military said Tuesday, in what may be an attempt by the Kremlin to strengthen its intelligence-gathering capacity following the August war with Georgia.

A Russian purchase of such aircraft from Israel would be a significant expansion of military business between the countries.

“We are working on this issue,” Gen. Nikolai Makarov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, told the Interfax news agency. “We are talking about a test batch of Israeli drone planes."

In recent months, the Russian Defense Ministry has unveiled sweeping changes aimed at streamlining the armed forces. The changes include thinning the officer corps, improving training and living standards for troops, and buying modern weapons systems.

Talk of the purchase was probably prompted by intelligence-gathering failures by the Russian military during the August war with Georgia, a country that already has Israeli-made spy aircraft, said Aleksandr Golts, an independent Russian military analyst.

"The war in Georgia showed us that we are frightfully lagging behind in terms of technical reconnaissance," Mr. Golts said. “There were many failures of intelligence.”

Russia has been unable to develop its own pilotless spy plane, though it had clear military dominance in the conflict, which lasted five days and severely weakened the Georgian military. Still, Georgia made effective use of Israeli-made spy aircraft in two Russian-backed Georgian separatist regions before the August conflict, angering Moscow. Last April, an Israeli-built Hermes 450 reconnaissance plane operated by Georgia was shot down over Abkhazia, one of the separatist Georgian regions. A United Nations report later concluded that a Russian fighter jet destroyed the aircraft. The episode contributed to escalating tensions that precipitated the conflict.

Moscow convinced the Israeli government to cut off sales of military equipment to Georgia just days before Georgia’s government ordered an artillery bombardment of the separatist enclave of South Ossetia on Aug. 7. That bombardment, independent military observers have said, sparked the war.

Russia has bought military-related electronic systems and other hardware from Israel before, Mr. Golts said, but buying the remotely piloted planes would raise Russian-Israeli weapons trade to a new level.

The negotiations concerning the spy planes are happening against a backdrop of strong Israeli objections to a possible sale by Moscow of advanced antiaircraft systems to Iran and Syria, two vocal adversaries of Israel.

Espionage Claim Hits Georgian Oligarch

The oppositional New Rights Party has accused State Chancellery head, Kakha Bendukidze, of espionage. The charges assert that Bendukidze colloborated with Russian military officer, Vitaly Shlikov, and exhibited ties to the Russian military during the Russian-Georgian War. Despite these bold claims, New Rights Party Member Pikria Tchikhradze, says that the oligarch's status will make him virtually untouchable. Exactly what role Bendukidze might have played prior to and duruing the war will potentially make his case one of Georgia's most hightlighted since that of the death of Georgian oligarch, Badri Patarkatsishvili. Developments of the accusations should be closely followed in the Georgian press to see how the Saakashvili administration and the public react.

Israel to Continue Arms Sale to Georgia

State-funded news channel Russia Today (RT) delivered a report yesterday claiming that Israel had stopped selling military equipment to Georgia after a complaint from Moscow. The report, which has yet to be retracted, purported that Russia had refrained from selling arms to Israel’s adversaries and expected a quid pro quo relationship. This entails Israel’s military relationship with Georgia, from which the small Caucasus nation has used its new acquisitions in the precarious regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. RT wrote that Jerusalem ultimately opted for a ban on military equipment sales to Georgia.

This is in contrast to a statement by Georgian State Minister for Reintegration Temur Iakobashvili, who denied Israel had frozen arms sales to Georgia. Mr. Iakobashvili further stated that the administration affirmed their relationship with the Israeli Foreign Ministry and that no problems have been present.

To date, Israeli companies like Elbit Systems, have sold to Georgia 70 million rifle cartridges, Merkava tanks, APCs, helicopters, UAVs, fire control systems, and night-vision devices. The most controversial of these items is the Hermes 450 UAV, which Georgia used for a reconnaissance mission over Abkhazia on 20 April, and was subsequently shot down. Recognized as the leading long endurance tactical UAV in its class, the Hermes 450 has been pivotal to Georgia’s desire to advance its military.

Since being elected in 2004, Georgian President Saakashvili has unabashedly sought to strengthen his nation’s armed forces. Their NATO aspirations have been reinforced with U.S. support by contributing over 2,000 troops to Iraq, making them the third largest contingent force after Great Britain. Georgian armed forces have received counterterrorism training from the U.S. in the 2002 Georgia Train and Equip Program (GTEP). Their ultimate win over armed rebels and terrorist forces in the Pankisi Gorge secured their position as a technologically proficient actor on the international stage.

A close military relationship between the U.S. and Georgia continues to this day as about 300 Georgia National Guard Soldiers are currently in Tbilisi for a three-week international exercise to help strengthen relationships. Coined Immediate Response 2008, the mission will further training for forces in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Ukraine.

Suffice it to say that even if RT’s report had any claim of credence, it would be very shocking indeed for Israel to make such a strategic blunder. Particularly when a large diaspora of Georgian Jews now live in Israel. Fortunately, Israel is not in between a rock and a hard place, but strategically situated, along with the U.S., to look out for Georgia’s military interests.