Russian Military Chorus Belittles Europe's Energy Dependence

Moscow's Military District is known for much more than ensuring public order. Their ensemble of Slavic singers apparently can carry quite a tune for audiences. One recent song showcases the insinuations of Russia's foreign policy. Their musings of the challenges to come are both captivating and alarming for the contiguous countries and those affected by Russia's energy monopoly.

The song begins with the question of Ukraine's eventual entry into NATO. Russia's response? Cutting the gas for all of Ukraine. While the audience cackled, they most likely were recalling Gazprom, the Russian energy monopoly cut off supplies of natural gas to Ukraine after a payment deadline expired in January. Relations have been icy ever since Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 launched the pro-Western career of President Viktor Yushchenko. Since then, Putin's relationship with its neighbor has deteriorated and continues to do so.

The next stanza details the recurrent everyday problems of Europe. It says that American Special Forces are already there, implying it is Europe's prerogative to have them there. Russia's military is not distressed, however, as its prescriptive policy calls for the gas to be cut for Europe too.

The singers state that the Belorussians are the only normal, peaceful people. They make this claim because the neighboring country drink's vodka to their health. Russia and Belarus continue to maintain an amiable relationship in the post-Soviet sphere. As a memorial to their infatuation of all things Soviet, Belarus has even kept its name for their secret service: the KGB. Belarus continues to rely on Russia for virtually all of its natural resources, enduring the politically compatible relations between Putin and Lukashenko.

The piece continues in Russia's desire to lead the long list of European countries; a fact demonstrated by it's frustration of having been denied the number one spot. Russia's Napoleon complex made itself evident in the innate necessity to be considered significant after the culmination of the Soviet Union. This explains the reasoning behind others allowing it to become member to the G-8, partner with NATO, and maintaining its chair on the UN Security Council. With an out-of-touch military that desperately needs to modernize and its economic difficulties, Russia will always seek ways of seeming important, if only outwardly.

The chorus of the song repeats the following line: "...and suddenly a shade of smile will touch your eyes, and the good mood will never leave you." Indeed, this verse seems to acknowledge that Russians will always be cognizant of and appreciate their energy power over Europe. This mocking will no doubt continue to surface in both Russian concert halls and inside Kremlin walls.

Mutiny at Georgian Base Averted

In what officials have called a small mutiny with links to Russia, the Georgian military averted what would have been an embarrassing crisis just a day ahead of joint Georgian-NATO exercises. Exactly what was the link to Russia remains to be seen, but it would not be surprising to discover that Russia planned a little bit of cross-voennaya dezinformatsiya (military disinformation), a mode of operational maskirovka.

While usually consisting of false information about one's OWN troops, it is now possible that Russia is trying to seed deliberate disinformation among its neighbor's troops for the purpose of deceiving them and NATO allies in a vain attempt to discredit the exercises only miles away from Tbilisi.

Why Nurture Russia's Illusions?

One of the best articles I've read on the current analysis of US-Russian relations and Russia's status quo: their intentions, objectives, and prospects. Perfect for anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of Eurasian affairs.

By MATTHEW KAMINSKI - WSJ

Barack Obama wants to make friends with Russia, "press the reset button" as his Veep proposed the other day.

Sounds familiar. Bill Clinton bear hugged Boris Yeltsin and George W. Bush peered into successor Vladimir Putin's soul. Yet relations haven't been this bad since Konstantin Chernenko's days at the Kremlin.

So what? America is on a roll in Eurasia. Democracy, open markets and stability spread across the region in the Clinton and Bush eras. From Estonia to Georgia to Macedonia, free people want to join the West.

At every step of the way, Russia sought to undermine this great post-Cold War project. Grant that the Kremlin acts in defense of its perceived interests but so should the U.S., and continue down this same path.

Here Foggy Bottom's finest chime in: Yes, but imagine a world with a friendly Russia, able to help us, say, stop Iran's atomic bomb program. So let's not push so hard to deploy anti-Iran missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic that Russia hates -- use, if necessary, the excuse that costs and feasibility require further study. Back off on closer NATO ties for Ukraine and Georgia. Make Russia feel important and consulted. Joe Biden sketched out this sort of bargain at last weekend's Munich security conference.

The conceit is we can win the Kremlin over by modifying our behavior. Before Mr. Obama tries, he should be aware of recent history. On missile defense, American diplomats spent as much time negotiating with Russia as with the Central Europeans, offering Moscow the chance to join in. Nothing came of it. On Kosovo independence and Iran sanctions, Russia blocked the West at the U.N.

Last spring, NATO snubbed Georgia and Ukraine in a signal of good will to Mr. Putin. The day after, Mr. Putin privately told Mr. Bush that Ukraine wasn't "a real country" and belonged in the Russian fold. Five months later, Russia invaded Georgia and de facto annexed its breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Mr. Obama may be tempted to think Russia can be won over. After all, they would seem to need America (short for the West) far more than America needs Russia. We're not the enemy. Russia's real strategic challenges are in the East: China looks ravenously at the vast, mineral-rich, lightly populated Siberian steppe cut off from Moscow (to this day, you can't drive across Russia). And to the South: The arc of Islamic extremism, starting with a possibly nuclear Iran, a competitor for Caspian energy and influence.

And as Mr. Putin discovers each day his economy sinks further, Russia failed to take advantage of sky-high oil prices to diversify away from energy. It sells nothing of value to the world aside from gas, oil and second-rate weapons. Its infrastructure is decaying and its population in decline.

A Kremlin leader with a long-term view would see these grave threats to Russia's future and rush to build a close partnership with the West. But the interests of Mr. Putin and his small, thuggish, authoritarian clique don't necessarily coincide with that of Russia.

The Obama magic dust doesn't seem to work on a regime defined and legitimized by its deep dislike for America. Dmitry Medvedev, the Putin underling in the president's office, moved the state of the nation address to the day after the American election to spin the outcome for the domestic audience. The U.S., he said into the winds of pro-American sentiment sweeping across the world in the wake of the Obama win, was "selfish . . . mistaken, egotistical and sometime simply dangerous."

The Kremlin then welcomed Mr. Obama into the White House with the administration's first serious foreign policy headache. Taking $2 billion from its fast-depleting reserves, Russia bullied and bribed Kyrgyzstan to close a U.S. military airfield, the main transport hub for supplies going into Afghanistan. Russia's desire for a "sphere of influence" trumps the threat of resurgent extreme Islamism in its southern underbelly.

The thinking here is Cold War porridge. But the Russians were never offered a new narrative. Mikhail Gorbachev's idea of a "European family" and Yeltsin's reforms foundered. Mr. Putin went back to a familiar recipe: Russia, empire-builder and scourge of the West.

A Cold War mentality lingers in America, too. A foreign policy caste rich in Sovietologists by habit overstates Russia's importance. The embassy in Moscow is huge; bilateral meetings inevitably become "summits," like in the old days.

Mr. Obama's fresh start is a good time for a reality check. The U.S. can work with Russia, seen in its proper place. To even suggest that the Russians have a special say over the fate of a Ukraine or our alliance with the Czechs lets Mr. Putin nurture the illusion of supposed greatness, and helps him hang on to power.

Ultimately it's up to the Russians to decide to be friends. One day, someone in the Kremlin will have to confront a hard choice: Does an isolated and dysfunctional Russia want to modernize and join up with the West, look toward China, or continue its slow decline? Until then, Mr. Obama better stock up on aspirin and dampen his and our expectations about Russia.

No More Brotherhood Between Ukraine and Russia

Good for Ohryzko and the much-needed official statement on the state of historic and cultural relations between Ukraine and Russia from the Kyiv Post.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Volodymyr Ohryzko thinks that the period of "brotherhood and the unity of Slavic people" has been gone for a long time in Russia-Ukraine relations.

"The time has come to get rid of stereotypes and stamps of brotherhood, historic unity and other things. We are the two sovereign states and we should build our relations on the basis of the international law," Ohryzko said at a news conference in Kyiv on Monday.

"When one speaks about the Slavic unity, an interesting question arises: how many Slavic countries are NATO members and how many are not," the minister said.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry can take "no red lines and no distribution of continents at the guidance of certain leaders" in the international security issue, the minister said.

"Each state has the right to choose its national security," Ohryzko said.

Historic US-Georgian Partnership Charter Signed

Earlier today at the US Department of State, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze signed the first Charter on Strategic Partnership between their two countries.

The document affirms the importance of the relationship between the US and Georgia, emphasizing that this cooperation between the two democracies is based on shared values and common interests, and stresses the mutual desire to strengthen the relationship across the economic, energy, diplomatic, scientific, cultural and security fields.

A Georgian official called the charter an important "stepping stone" for the Caucasus nation into NATO and the "family of Western and civilized nations."

The non-binding document is yet another reminder of the strong commitment between the two countries. This past September, US President Bush pledged $1 billion in aid to Georgia in light of Russia's violation of Georgia's territorial sovereignty.

The full text of the charter may be found at Civil Georgia.

The full video of the signing of the charter can be found below courtesy of The Department of State.

Worst Espionage Scandal Since End of Cold War

Herman Simm, 61, former chief of the Estonian Defense Ministry's security department, and his wife, Heete Simm, were arrested on 21 September 2008 on suspicion of communicating classified documents to Russia. Estonian press reports say that he may have been involved in selling secrets concerning information between the US, NATO, and the EU. Simm is currently being investigated by the NATO Office for Security under U.S. supervision. While NATO has yet to make a statement concerning the case, its implications as one of the most threatening security breaches to hit the military alliance, are alarming. In effect, because of Simm's former highranking position in Tallinn, he had access to every Top Seceret document passing between the EU and NATO.

Der Spiegel reports that Simm used an old converted radio to send the latest intelligence to his Russian contact in Moscow as early as the late 1980s. This information potentially sent to the SVR, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, included the U.S. cyber-defense network and proposed missile shield in Eastern Europe, NATO analyses on the Kosovo crisis, and on the Russian-Georgian War. A counterintelligence case of this prodigious nature has not been seen since the likes of former CIA agent, Aldrich Ames, the highest paid KGB spy in US history.

Simm's motives have yet to be released to the public. However, some form of financial gratuity was given to him in the form of numerous expensive plots of property around Tallinn. If convicted, Simm faces three to fifteen years in prison under Estonian law.

Despite NATO's enlargement of the Baltic republics in 2004 (and the Westernization of many post-Soviet republics and satellites), Russia has sought to maintain its influence in the region by any means necessary. The economic influence over the West concerning natural gas and oil has put it in a strategic position for dominance. Nevertheless, Russia's furtive character must not be excluded from future analyses. The former and most likely counterintelligence state will continue to use past practices from its Soviet days to be cognizant of European affairs.